The Dynamics of Population and Economic Growth in Nigeria
SakiruOladele AKINBODE, Kayode S. OKEOWO, ArisekolaTaoheed AZEEZ

There is no consensus on the actual relationship between population growth and economic growth in economies around the world. The dynamic relationship between these two phenomena in the Nigerian economy was examined using yearly data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin from 1970 to 2014. The ADF testfound that the two series were only differenced stationary and Johansen Co-integration test revealed that both variables had long-run relationship. The VECM revealed that economic growth adjusts to its long-run equilibrium at the rate of 6 percent annually. Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition revealed that population growth played significant role in the growth of Nigerian economy. Contingent on the results of ADF, Toda-Yamamoto VAR model was estimated in order to carryout Granger non-causality test. Unidirectional causality flowing from population growth to economic growth was found thereby buttressing the earlier results. It was recommended that government capitalizes on the population growth by encouraging skill acquisition which could enhance productivity of the growing labour force. This is imperative because if the growth rate of GDP is less than the growth rate of population, there would be a decline in GDP per-capita and possibly fall in standard of living.

Full Text: PDF     DOI: 10.15640/jeds.v5n3a9